Our final forecast for our nation’s second least prestigious legislative chamber is finally here. This year’s elections include the 33 Class 1 senate seats and one special election for the seat formerly held by Ben Sasse. We are predicting that Democrats will lose their majority, giving Republicans a 92.4% of flipping the chamber. Republicans need two flips to take control and two flips is all we think they’ll get.
Let’s start with the easy one. Independent senator Joe Manchin (I - WV) announced he would not be seeking reelection this year, gifting Republicans the seat. Our forecast gives Democrats a 0.1% chance of retaining the seat in the deep red state.
Senator Jon Tester (D) is the only incumbent Democrat who is still contesting a seat in a state where former president Trump won by more than 10 points. While he has survived two reelection campaigns, Republican challenger Tim Sheehy will likely take the seat, with an 86.5% chance of victory.
Several presidential battlegrounds are also hosting senate elections this year, notably Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. In all five of the elections mentioned, we believe that Democrats will hold the seat, with all five being rated Likely Democrat. But if even one flips, this could kill the chances of the Democrats hanging on to the Senate.
While Democrats are on the defense this year, Republicans also have a few seats that could be at risk. The most notable of these is Texas. Democratic representative Colin Allred will look to take down incumbent senator Ted Cruz (R), the former Republican presidential hopeful. While Allred could keep it close, he is unlikely to flip the seat, and we give him a 15.9% chance of doing so.
Another seat at risk this year that not many people expected to be close is Nebraska. Democrats declined to field a candidate, with independent Dan Osborn battling incumbent Deb Fischer (R). This one is interesting, while there are a decent amount of polls, most are sponsored by one of the two candidates. The few polls that aren’t from either show pretty fascinating numbers. YouGov / The Economist’s poll from last week showed Fischer up by nine points, a SurveyUSA / SplitTicket poll from months ago showed Fischer up by only one, and a recent New York Times / Siena College poll had Osborn leading among registered voters. With scarce and inconsistent polling data, our model likes the fundamentals, and gives Fischer an 88.1% chance of victory.
So that’s all we have for this election season. If I end up doing terribly, I will pretend like this never happened. If I do well, I will mention it endlessly for the next four years. Have a happy Election Day everyone.
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